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The San Joaquin Growth Response Study Phase III is the third phase of a larger planning effort sponsored by the California DOT (Caltrans) to examine the potential for smart growth concepts to address the large amount of growth that is expected in the Valley over the next 40 to 50 years. Phase III focuses on showing jurisdictions in the Fresno/Madera County region the utility of two Geographic Information Systems-based models for evaluating the transportation, land use, and air quality impacts of local policy choices on urban growth patterns. The intent is that these planning tools will make the impacts of growth more easily apparent to decision-makers and the public, and that these GIS-based tools can then be used by jurisdictions in the region for on-going land use and transportation planning efforts with a focus on reducing the negative effects of rapid urbanization (i.e., loss of prime agricultural land, poor air quality, growing congestion), while encouraging more sustainable growth.
CD+A is a subconsultant to VRPA Technologies in a multi-disciplinary team, which includes economic, transportation, and local land use consultants. CD+A is serving as the primary land use consultant and is responsible for developing the land use/transportation scenarios as initially defined by the stakeholders, processing the scenarios through the models, working with the transportation consultant to prepare inputs to the regional transportation models, and presenting the scenarios and their results to local decision-makers and stakeholders in order to receive input. To accomplish this, CD+A has been responsible for collecting, assembling, standardizing, and reconfiguring data from the region’s jurisdictions, including 2 counties; 17 incorporated communities; and several unincorporated communities, new towns, and developments.
The modeling process has the following steps – first scenarios are prepared for input into a land use allocation model (What If?), which distributes projected employment and population growth to areas with a set of designated future land uses. Results are processed for input into the region’s transportation models and for use with through a visualization/indicator model (INDEX) in order to evaluate the effects of the particular growth scenario against key indicators chosen by local decision-makers and stakeholders. An “Initial Run” of the models was undertaken to assess the potential impacts and benefits of existing land use and transportation policies and practices. Two alternative scenarios are currently being developed to explore the potential impacts and benefits of different approaches to compact mixed-use land use patterns and major investments in transit. These will illustrate the ability of the GIS-tools to facilitate the evaluation of alternative land use/transportation futures.
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